Shankar Vedantam: You don't actually know what your future self wants

Recorded atApril 10, 2022
EventTED2022
Duration (min:sec)14:03
Video TypeTED Stage Talk
Words per minute193.13 fast
Readability (FK)62.99 easy
SpeakerShankar Vedantam

Official TED page for this talk

Synopsis

"You are constantly becoming a new person," says journalist Shankar Vedantam. In a talk full of beautiful storytelling, he explains the profound impact of something he calls the "illusion of continuity" -- the belief that our future selves will share the same views, perspectives and hopes as our current selves -- and shows how we can more proactively craft the people we are to become.

Text Highlight (experimental)
     
100:03 When I was 12 years old,
200:06 I fractured my foot playing soccer.
300:09 I didn't tell my parents when I got home that night,
400:11 because the next day, my dad was taking me to see a movie,
500:15 a soccer movie.
600:17 I worried that if I told my parents about the foot,
700:20 they would take me to see a doctor.
800:22 I didn't want to see a doctor,
900:24 I wanted to see the movie.
1000:26 The next morning, my dad goes,
1100:28 "It's nice out. Why don't we walk to the theater."
1200:32 (Laughter)
1300:33 It was a mile away.
1400:36 As we go, he says,
1500:37 "Why are you limping?"
1600:39 I tell him I have something in my shoe.
1700:42 The movie was spectacular.
1800:44 It told the story of some of soccer's greatest stars,
1900:47 great Brazilian players.
2000:48 I was ecstatic.
2100:50 At the end of the movie, I told my dad about the foot;
2200:53 he took me to see an orthopedic doctor,
2300:56 who put my foot in a cast for three weeks.
2400:59 I tell you the story today, because four decades later,
2501:03 I don't really consider myself a soccer fan anymore.
2601:06 Today, my sports fandom is tuned to another kind of football.
2701:11 Now my 12-year-old self wouldn't just find this incomprehensible.
2801:16 My 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal.
2901:22 Now you might say we all change from the time we are 12,
3001:25 so let me fast-forward a decade.
3101:27 When I was 22,
3201:29 I was a freshly minted electronics engineer in southern India.
3301:33 I had no idea that three decades later, I would be living in the United States,
3401:37 that I would be a journalist,
3501:38 and that I would be the host of a podcast called "Hidden Brain."
3601:41 It's a show about human behavior
3701:44 and how to apply psychological science to our lives.
3801:47 Now we didn’t have podcasts when I graduated from college.
3901:50 We didn’t walk around with smartphones in our pockets.
4001:54 So my future was not just unknown;
4101:57 it was unknowable.
4201:59 All of us have seen what this is like in the last three years,
4302:02 as we slowly try and emerge from the COVID pandemic.
4402:05 If we think about the people we used to be three years ago, before the pandemic,
4502:09 we can see how we have changed.
4602:12 We can see how anxiety and isolation
4702:15 and upheavals in our lives and livelihoods,
4802:18 how this has changed us, changed our outlook,
4902:21 changed our perspective.
5002:23 But there is a paradox here,
5102:24 and the paradox is when we look backwards,
5202:27 we can see enormous changes in who we have become.
5302:31 But when we look forwards,
5402:33 we tend to imagine that we're going to be the same people in the future.
5502:37 Now sure, we imagine the world is going to be different.
5602:39 We know what AI and climate change
5702:41 is going to mean for a very different world.
5802:43 But we don't imagine that we ourselves will have different perspectives,
5902:47 different views, different preferences in the future.
6002:50 I call this the illusion of continuity.
6102:53 And I think one reason this happens is that when we look backwards,
6202:56 the contrast with our prior selves to who we are today is so clear.
6303:00 We can see it so clearly that we have become different people.
6403:04 When we look forward, we can imagine ourselves being a little older,
6503:08 a little grayer,
6603:09 but we don't imagine, fundamentally,
6703:12 that we're going to have a different outlook or perspective,
6803:15 that we're going to be different people.
6903:16 And so those changes seem more amorphous.
7003:21 I want to make the case to you today
7103:22 that this illusion has profound consequences
7203:25 not just for whether we become soccer players or podcast hosts,
7303:29 but for matters involving life and death.
7403:32 Let me introduce you to John and Stephanie Rinka.
7503:35 We did a story about them for "Hidden Brain" some years ago.
7603:38 This photograph was taken in 1971, on their wedding day.
7703:42 John and Stephanie had just eloped,
7803:44 and gotten married at Cambridge City Hall in Massachusetts.
7903:48 He was 22, she was 19.
8003:51 John told me that after they got married,
8103:53 they traveled to different parts of the country.
8203:56 They eventually settled in North Carolina.
8303:58 John became a high school basketball coach,
8404:01 Stephanie became a nurse.
8504:03 And because they lived in a rural part of the state,
8604:05 she would often make house visits to patients.
8704:08 Many of the patients she saw were very sick.
8804:11 They had terminal illnesses, very low quality of life.
8904:14 And when Stephanie came home from these visits,
9004:17 she was often shaken.
9104:18 And she would tell John,
9204:20 "John, if I ever get a terminal illness,
9304:23 please do nothing to prolong my suffering.
9404:27 I care more about quality of life than quantity of life.
9504:32 In her more dramatic moments, she would say,
9604:34 "John, if I ever get that sick, just shoot me.
9704:37 Just shoot me."
9804:39 And John Rinka would look lovingly at his wife, his healthy wife,
9904:44 and he would say,
10004:45 "OK, Steph. OK."
10104:49 Fast-forward a couple of decades.
10204:51 In her late fifties, Stephanie begins to slur her words.
10304:56 She goes to see a doctor, who runs some tests,
10404:59 and he diagnoses her with ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease.
10505:04 He tells her it's fatal. It's incurable.
10605:08 And he tells her that a day is going to come
10705:10 when she is no longer able to breathe on her own.
10805:15 Stephanie, being Stephanie,
10905:16 decides to extract as much joy and pleasure from life as she can,
11005:19 she spends time with friends and family.
11105:22 As she gets sicker,
11205:23 she and John spend some time on a beautiful beach that they both love.
11305:28 But there comes a day when Stephanie, in fact, is no longer able to breathe.
11405:32 She's gasping for air, and John takes her to the hospital.
11505:35 And a nurse at the hospital asked Stephanie,
11605:38 "Mrs. Rinka, would you like us to put you on a ventilator?"
11705:44 And Stephanie says yes.
11805:47 John is flabbergasted.
11905:49 They've been having this conversation for 30 years.
12005:51 Surely that's not what Stephanie wants.
12105:53 He doesn't say anything.
12205:55 The next morning, he says,
12305:57 "Steph, when the nurse asked you yesterday if you wanted to go on a ventilator,
12406:01 and you said yes,
12506:02 is that really what you want?"
12606:03 And Stephanie Rinka said yes.
12706:08 Now, you might argue that if Stephanie had written out an advance directive,
12806:12 if Stephanie had come into the hospital unconscious,
12906:15 if the nurse had asked John, "What is it your wife would want?"
13006:18 John, without hesitation, would have said,
13106:20 "Of course she does not want to go on a ventilator.
13206:23 We should figure out a way to keep her as comfortable as possible
13306:26 so that she can die with dignity."
13406:28 But of course, this only solves the legal conundrum.
13506:32 It doesn't solve the ethical problem here.
13606:34 And the ethical problem is that Stephanie, at age 39, as she was healthy,
13706:40 had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59,
13806:43 with a terminal illness, gasping for air,
13906:46 would really want.
14006:49 For the older Stephanie,
14106:50 her younger self might as well have been a stranger.
14206:53 A stranger who was trying to make life and death decisions for her.
14306:58 Philosophers have talked for many years about a thought experiment;
14407:02 it’s sometimes called the “ship of Theseus”.
14507:05 The great warrior Theseus returned from his exploits,
14607:08 his ship was stationed in the harbor as a memorial.
14707:11 And over the decades, parts of the ship began to rot and decay,
14807:15 and as this happened, planks were replaced by new planks.
14907:18 Until, eventually, every part of the ship of Theseus
15007:22 was built from something new.
15107:24 And philosophers, starting with Plato,
15207:26 have asked the question "If every part of the ship of Theseus is new,
15307:30 is this still the ship of Theseus?"
15407:34 You and I are walking examples of the ship of Theseus.
15507:39 Our cells turn over all the time.
15607:42 The people you were 10 years ago are not the people you are today.
15707:47 Biologically, you have become a different person.
15807:50 But I believe something much more profound happens at a psychological level.
15907:55 Because you could argue a ship is not just a collection of planks,
16007:58 a body is not just a collection of cells.
16108:00 It's the organization of the planks that makes the ship.
16208:03 It's the organization of the cells that make the body.
16308:05 If you preserve the organization,
16408:07 even if you swap planks or cells in and out,
16508:10 you still have the ship, you still have the same body.
16608:13 But at a psychological level,
16708:16 each new layer that's put down
16808:18 is not identical to the one that came before it.
16908:23 The famous plasticity of the brain that we've all heard so much about
17008:26 means that, on an ongoing basis,
17108:29 you are constantly becoming a new person.
17208:35 This has profound consequences for so many aspects of our lives.
17308:40 You know, I have the illusion that 12-year-old Shankar
17408:44 who wanted to be a soccer star,
17508:46 and 52-year-old Shankar who is the podcast host
17608:49 and 82-year-old Shankar,
17708:51 who will hopefully be living one day on a beautiful beach,
17808:54 that these are all the same person.
17908:57 Is that really true?
18009:00 Let's set aside the philosophical questions for another day,
18109:03 and let me tell you about some of the practical challenges
18209:06 of this problem.
18309:08 When we make promises to other people,
18409:10 when we promise to love someone till death do us part,
18509:13 we are making a promise that a stranger is going to have to keep.
18609:19 Our future selves might not share our views, our perspectives, our hopes.
18709:26 When we lock people up and throw away the key,
18809:29 it's not just that the people we imprison are going to be different in 30 years.
18909:33 We are going to be different 30 years from now.
19009:35 Our need for retribution, for vengeance, might not be what it is today.
19109:42 (Applause)
19209:46 When we pass laws,
19309:48 we often do so with an intent of making a better country,
19409:51 improving our country.
19509:53 But any country that's been around for a few decades
19609:56 has numerous laws on the books
19709:57 that made perfect sense when they were crafted --
19810:00 in fact, that were seen as enlightened when they were crafted --
19910:03 and today, they seem antiquated or absurd, or even unconscionable.
20010:08 And all of these examples stem from the same problem,
20110:10 which is that we imagine that we represent the end of history.
20210:16 That the future is only going to be more of the same.
20310:22 I have three pieces of advice
20410:23 on how to wrestle with this wicked problem.
20510:25 And it is a wicked problem,
20610:27 because all of us spend so much of our lives
20710:29 trying to make our future selves happy.
20810:32 We don't stop to ask,
20910:34 "Is it possible that in 20 or 30 years,
21010:36 our future selves are going to look back at us
21110:38 with bewilderment, with resentment.
21210:41 That our future selves will ask us,
21310:43 "What made you possibly think that that is what I would want?"
21410:49 The first piece of advice I have
21510:51 is if you accept the idea that you're going to be a different person
21610:54 in 30 years' time,
21710:56 you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become.
21810:59 You should be the curator of your future self.
21911:02 You should be the architect of your future self.
22011:05 But what does that mean?
22111:06 Spend time with people who are not just your friends and family.
22211:10 Spend time on avocations and professional pursuits
22311:13 that are not just what you do regularly.
22411:16 Expand your horizons,
22511:18 because you're going to become someone different,
22611:20 you might as well be in charge of deciding who that person is going to be.
22711:24 So the first piece of advice is to stay curious.
22811:28 Second, as we make pronouncements on social media or in political forums,
22911:34 or at dinner parties,
23011:35 let's bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us
23111:40 are our own future selves.
23211:43 (Laughter)
23311:44 So when we express views with great certitude and confidence,
23411:49 let's remember to add a touch of humility.
23511:53 This is true, by the way, not just at an individual level --
23611:56 it's also true at an organizational level.
23711:58 I was speaking, some time ago, with this young, wonderful woman.
23812:02 She had just reached a position of authority at her organization,
23912:05 and she had many idealistic ideas
24012:07 of how she wanted to change her organization.
24112:09 And she asked me, "How do we make these changes
24212:12 so that in the future,
24312:14 no one's going to come along and undo the changes that I have made?"
24412:18 And it's a very human impulse, but it stems from the same belief,
24512:23 that our perspective on history is the final word.
24612:27 And quite simply, this is wrong.
24712:32 Three.
24812:34 I've given you a number of ways
24912:35 in which our future selves are going to be weaker and frailer than we are today.
25012:44 And that is true, that is part of the story.
25112:46 But it is only a part of the story.
25212:49 Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths
25312:54 and wisdom that we do not possess today.
25412:58 So when we confront opportunities and we hesitate,
25513:02 when I tell myself, "I don't think I have it in me
25613:04 to quit my job and start my own company,"
25713:08 or I tell myself I don't have it in me to learn a musical instrument
25813:12 at the age of 52.
25913:15 Or I tell myself I don't have it in me to look after a disabled child.
26013:20 What we really should be saying
26113:23 is "I don't have the capacity to do those things today.
26213:27 That doesn’t mean I won’t have the capacity to do those things tomorrow.”
26313:33 So lesson number three is to be brave.
26413:37 I believe if you can do these three things,
26513:40 if you can stay curious,
26613:42 you can practice humility and you can be brave,
26713:45 then your future self will look back at you
26813:48 in 20 or 30 years --
26913:49 will look back,
27013:51 not with resentment or bewilderment,
27113:53 but will look back at you and say:
27213:57 "Thank you."
27314:00 (Applause)
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